Order cancellation list

[Skidmarks68]

Was just curious if there is a list of those who cancelled their reservation? Might make it easier to get a real time outlook on wait times

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[Kurt Rebyc]

I think you'd be more likely to find this list on the Rivian or F150-Lightning forums!

 

[Duskin_Anthony]

I feel like this might not the best place gauge cancellation rate ?

 

[Nabilriaz69]

Was just curious if there is a list of those who cancelled their reservation? Might make it easier to get a real time outlook on wait times

 

[scottf200]

I feel like this might not the best place gauge cancellation rate ?

Right ... people who canceled would have likely stopped coming here or wouldn't be searching for CT info anymore. ie. just moved on.

 

[jcryer3]

I am assuming 50% total cancellation. Also the remaining 50% probably has 20% single motor types. We can assume 40% of the reservations are moving forward. So if you are at #200,000 on the list, there are 80,000 in front of you. Anyone else have an opinion?

 

[lowtek]

Your reservation number isn't a place in line. I'm a day 0 reservation holder and still no invite. There are folks 50,000 behind me and they've received invites (congrats!).

The Foundation Series allocations don't make sense so far, just seems very random and it may well be.

 

[drrjv]

I'd guess more like 33% go through with purchase, in light of price increase, range discrepancy and maybe some concern re: new battery technology.

I'm hoping Tesla voids the invites that haven't bit and send out a new round of invitations soon! It is a 'new year' after all.

 

[pricedm]

you mean like this....?

 

[CyberMoose]

I am assuming 50% total cancellation. Also the remaining 50% probably has 20% single motor types. We can assume 40% of the reservations are moving forward. So if you are at #200,000 on the list, there are 80,000 in front of you. Anyone else have an opinion?

I'd guess more like 33% go through with purchase, in light of price increase, range discrepancy and maybe some concern re: new battery technology.

I'm hoping Tesla voids the invites that haven't bit and send out a new round of invitations soon! It is a 'new year' after all.

I think the cancelation rates will be much much much higher. We could also include people outside north america as basically 'canceled'. While that's probably a small percentage, we also have to assume that the ≈2,000,000 reservations are total and not active. So anyone who canceled already, including people overseas who reserved thinking Tesla might sell Cybertrucks on other continents, would be included in that ≈2,000,000.

And I also believe that a significant number of people will get the RWD version over the AWD. A big reason I think this is because as far as I know, the highest demand for any trim of truck is the cheapest full size 4 door model. We can assume this is because most people just want a truck despite the majority using it for things that any cheap car could also do.

Even if we look at Tesla sales. the 3/Y sales this past year accounted for 96% of Tesla's sales and I'm sure price is a huge factor when buying a 3 over an S or a Y over an X. With the current prices, the AWD/Beast trims just seem to be competing with the very high trim levels of other Tesla's or Trucks that already don't have extreme demand. If Tesla kept the original pricing (obviously wasn't going to happen), I could see a much higher amount of people going AWD, but even then I think the RWD would have had the highest demand. not the most sales in the first few years, since I'm sure Tesla will prioritize the AWD, but highest demand for sure.

Also it was a cheap deposit for a truck that by mid 2020, everyone ordering already assumed that they would have hundreds of thousands of people in front of them. I've heard so many people saying that they reserved one and would save up for it. The price increases probably crushed a lot of peoples dreams, especially if they were saving up for a down-payment on a 40k truck and now it's 60k. Tons of people since the price increase have stated that they are dropping out.

The wait is another huge factor. 2019 was a long time ago and in that time I'm sure people have canceled for many reasons, including people that have bought other electric trucks, ICE trucks, or a different model of Tesla. some might be still holding onto their reservation, but it's likely that many people who upgraded their vehicles in the past couple years might hesitate to do so again. Especially if they bought a different electric truck, competition that wasn't around when Cybertruck was revealed.

Honestly, I would be surprised if 20% of people who had reservations placed between reveal and the delivery event go through. My estimate is 15%. I still think it will be years before someone can order one and expect it within a few months (other than foundation series or cyberbeast after the first year), but I think anyone who has ordered before the delivery event will probably get it before 2027 and people who ordered before 2021 probably getting theirs before 2026. The longest wait times will probably be for late orders of the RWD.

 

[jcryer3]

All good points.

 

[Woodrick]

Of course there's also the take that people who made their reservation highly expected that the pre-release information would change. And that the inflation caused by Covid is to be expected.
For many people, the wait actually mean some raises, so they are in an even better shape to afford the truck.

There's always a counterpoint.

But Tesla's track history with the Model 3 and Model Y suggest that it will indeed be a long time before supply is not constrained.

But all we can do is wait and see.

 

[jerhenderson]

I am assuming 50% total cancellation. Also the remaining 50% probably has 20% single motor types. We can assume 40% of the reservations are moving forward. So if you are at #200,000 on the list, there are 80,000 in front of you. Anyone else have an opinion?

Since we all know that the number Q smells like purple, I'm guessing mimsy were the borogroves.

 

[Crissa]

Your reservation number isn't a place in line. I'm a day 0 reservation holder and still no invite. There are folks 50,000 behind me and they've received invites (congrats!).

The Foundation Series allocations don't make sense so far, just seems very random and it may well be.

Are you near a delivery point they're targeting?

Did you have an address set in your TeslaAccount when they drew up the foundation series email list?

Did you order a dual or tri motor?

Because they've been following the numbers with those caveats.

-Crissa

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