Production rate theory

[Mini2nut]

Adding second shift will be encouraging as long as suppliers can keep up. Production will only be as fast as your slowest arriving parts.

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[evnow]

Adding second shift will be encouraging as long as suppliers can keep up. Production will only be as fast as your slowest arriving parts.

They won't be adding a second shift unless supply chain is ready.

 

[agordon117]

There won't be a drone flyover today. Normally Joe Tegtmeyer and Brad Sloan alternate days (and nobody flies sunday), but Joe is heading to starbase. I've been updating the first post as the numbers come in. My theory here has been 80 trucks on a good day, 57 leave the factory average per day. Someone posted Vin stickers of 2 trucks made 7 days apart, and they were 400 vins apart, which is exactly 57 per day. While that's not really enough data, it's one more piece of the puzzle that suggest I could be right.

With that in mind, here's a spreadsheet I compiled of a percentage chance for a vin to be assigned on a given day. Jan 10 and before orders, inclusive. The data assumes no ramp, but also assumes no more line jumpers or general out of order vin assignments.

I'm sure of the math in the 2nd column "Percent chance for a single vin to be assigned on a given date". It's the 3rd column I'm less sure about. It looks reasonable, but my brain isn't happy with the logic.

Updated the math for the 3rd column, much better now.

I'm only bothering to put this here as well so that all of my various theories aren't in completely separate places around the forums.

Vins left to be assigned for 1/10 orders and before	Percent chance for a single vin to be assigned on a given date	percent chance to be picked by a given day	Date
6216​	0.94%​	0.9170%​	3/11/2024​
6159​	0.95%​	1.8340%​	3/12/2024​
6102​	0.96%​	2.7510%​	3/13/2024​
6045​	0.96%​	3.6680%​	3/14/2024​
5988​	0.97%​	4.5849%​	3/15/2024​
5931​	0.98%​	5.5019%​	3/16/2024​
5874​	0.99%​	6.4189%​	3/17/2024​
5817​	1.00%​	7.3359%​	3/18/2024​
5760​	1.01%​	8.2529%​	3/19/2024​
5703​	1.02%​	9.1699%​	3/20/2024​
5646​	1.03%​	10.0869%​	3/21/2024​
5589​	1.04%​	11.0039%​	3/22/2024​
5532​	1.05%​	11.9208%​	3/23/2024​
5475​	1.07%​	12.8378%​	3/24/2024​
5418​	1.08%​	13.7548%​	3/25/2024​
5361​	1.09%​	14.6718%​	3/26/2024​
5304​	1.10%​	15.5888%​	3/27/2024​
5247​	1.11%​	16.5058%​	3/28/2024​
5190​	1.12%​	17.4228%​	3/29/2024​
5133​	1.14%​	18.3398%​	3/30/2024​
5076​	1.15%​	19.2568%​	3/31/2024​
5019​	1.16%​	20.1737%​	4/1/2024​
4962​	1.18%​	21.0907%​	4/2/2024​
4905​	1.19%​	22.0077%​	4/3/2024​
4848​	1.20%​	22.9247%​	4/4/2024​
4791​	1.22%​	23.8417%​	4/5/2024​
4734​	1.23%​	24.7587%​	4/6/2024​
4677​	1.25%​	25.6757%​	4/7/2024​
4620​	1.26%​	26.5927%​	4/8/2024​
4563​	1.28%​	27.5097%​	4/9/2024​
4506​	1.30%​	28.4266%​	4/10/2024​
4449​	1.31%​	29.3436%​	4/11/2024​
4392​	1.33%​	30.2606%​	4/12/2024​
4335​	1.35%​	31.1776%​	4/13/2024​
4278​	1.37%​	32.0946%​	4/14/2024​
4221​	1.38%​	33.0116%​	4/15/2024​
4164​	1.40%​	33.9286%​	4/16/2024​
4107​	1.42%​	34.8456%​	4/17/2024​
4050​	1.44%​	35.7625%​	4/18/2024​
3993​	1.46%​	36.6795%​	4/19/2024​
3936​	1.48%​	37.5965%​	4/20/2024​
3879​	1.51%​	38.5135%​	4/21/2024​
3822​	1.53%​	39.4305%​	4/22/2024​
3765​	1.55%​	40.3475%​	4/23/2024​
3708​	1.58%​	41.2645%​	4/24/2024​
3651​	1.60%​	42.1815%​	4/25/2024​
3594​	1.63%​	43.0985%​	4/26/2024​
3537​	1.65%​	44.0154%​	4/27/2024​
3480​	1.68%​	44.9324%​	4/28/2024​
3423​	1.71%​	45.8494%​	4/29/2024​
3366​	1.74%​	46.7664%​	4/30/2024​
3309​	1.77%​	47.6834%​	5/1/2024​
3252​	1.80%​	48.6004%​	5/2/2024​
3195​	1.83%​	49.5174%​	5/3/2024​
3138​	1.87%​	50.4344%​	5/4/2024​
3081​	1.90%​	51.3514%​	5/5/2024​
3024​	1.94%​	52.2683%​	5/6/2024​
2967​	1.97%​	53.1853%​	5/7/2024​
2910​	2.01%​	54.1023%​	5/8/2024​
2853​	2.05%​	55.0193%​	5/9/2024​
2796​	2.10%​	55.9363%​	5/10/2024​
2739​	2.14%​	56.8533%​	5/11/2024​
2682​	2.19%​	57.7703%​	5/12/2024​
2625​	2.23%​	58.6873%​	5/13/2024​
2568​	2.28%​	59.6042%​	5/14/2024​
2511​	2.34%​	60.5212%​	5/15/2024​
2454​	2.39%​	61.4382%​	5/16/2024​
2397​	2.45%​	62.3552%​	5/17/2024​
2340​	2.51%​	63.2722%​	5/18/2024​
2283​	2.57%​	64.1892%​	5/19/2024​
2226​	2.64%​	65.1062%​	5/20/2024​
2169​	2.71%​	66.0232%​	5/21/2024​
2112​	2.78%​	66.9402%​	5/22/2024​
2055​	2.86%​	67.8571%​	5/23/2024​
1998​	2.95%​	68.7741%​	5/24/2024​
1941​	3.03%​	69.6911%​	5/25/2024​
1884​	3.13%​	70.6081%​	5/26/2024​
1827​	3.23%​	71.5251%​	5/27/2024​
1770​	3.33%​	72.4421%​	5/28/2024​
1713​	3.44%​	73.3591%​	5/29/2024​
1656​	3.56%​	74.2761%​	5/30/2024​
1599​	3.69%​	75.1931%​	5/31/2024​
1542​	3.83%​	76.1100%​	6/1/2024​
1485​	3.98%​	77.0270%​	6/2/2024​
1428​	4.15%​	77.9440%​	6/3/2024​
1371​	4.32%​	78.8610%​	6/4/2024​
1314​	4.51%​	79.7780%​	6/5/2024​
1257​	4.72%​	80.6950%​	6/6/2024​
1200​	4.95%​	81.6120%​	6/7/2024​
1143​	5.21%​	82.5290%​	6/8/2024​
1086​	5.49%​	83.4459%​	6/9/2024​
1029​	5.80%​	84.3629%​	6/10/2024​
972​	6.15%​	85.2799%​	6/11/2024​
915​	6.55%​	86.1969%​	6/12/2024​
858​	7.00%​	87.1139%​	6/13/2024​
801​	7.51%​	88.0309%​	6/14/2024​
744​	8.11%​	88.9479%​	6/15/2024​
687​	8.81%​	89.8649%​	6/16/2024​
630​	9.65%​	90.7819%​	6/17/2024​
573​	10.66%​	91.6988%​	6/18/2024​
516​	11.91%​	92.6158%​	6/19/2024​
459​	13.49%​	93.5328%​	6/20/2024​
402​	15.56%​	94.4498%​	6/21/2024​
345​	18.38%​	95.3668%​	6/22/2024​
288​	22.44%​	96.2838%​	6/23/2024​
231​	28.84%​	97.2008%​	6/24/2024​
174​	40.40%​	98.1178%​	6/25/2024​

 

[agordon117]

@cgladue, fixed the math. column 3 makes much more sense now. Not as doom and gloom as I thought.

 

[Alan]

Today there is 6 trucks sitting in the parking lot. Took pics of the vins and production dates.

 

[Alan]

Last 3

 

[agordon117]

Today there is 6 trucks sitting in the parking lot. Took pics of the vins and production dates.

Thanks for that. Seems to match my assumptions very nicely.

 

[CyberGus]

New Process? WTF happened to the Old Process??!?

 

[agordon117]

Just in case anyone is still tuning in, 174 trucks outside of giga texas yesterday (normal for a production day). 32 in outbound. Nothing to directly suggest that production has increased yet, but it does seem like things are rolling through outbound differently than they were.

We peaked on 3/5 at 59 in outbound, and then it's been going down from there. But I believe the output has been right around the magic number of 57 trucks shipped per day, so things are more dynamic than they were.

I'll keep the spreadsheet updated on my end but I'm probably not going to be updating it in the first post until we get drone videos back at 6 days per week. It just won't be meaningful information with less outbound numbers.

That said, we're seeing 5 vins assigned for 3/11 and 3/12 already, normally a few more get added over the course of a week. We might end up seeing 7 or 8 vins assigned for those 2 days by the time the numbers have settled. Time will tell.

It occurs to me that people may not like my assumptions (duh, it's the internet), but I can still provide useful information to those people. You pick how many vins you think will be assigned on average per day, only of the registered orders on the forums. This will tell you how long it will take, based on that average, to fill the orders quoted for march delivery.

Per cybertruck.vin, the average vins per day (on the forum) are at 3.6 starting from jan 1. Counting from feb 1, vins per day is 4.4. Counting from Feb 26, vins per day is 5.4.

I'm including beasts because they are being shipped with AWD. The lead time was longer (early 24 ends April 30th), and moved quickly. But we can't assume that vins being assigned are AWD vins based on the last few days.

Spreadsheet assumes vins stop going out of order as well, which we know won't happen.

March delivery orders remaining (1/17 cutoff, AWD)	All orders including beast, 1/17 cutoff	Known vins assigned per day (avg)	Days to last march AWD vin assignment	Days including beast
507	836	1	507	836
507	836	2	253.5	418
507	836	3	169	278.6666667
507	836	4	126.75	209
507	836	5	101.4	167.2
507	836	6	84.5	139.3333333
507	836	7	72.42857143	119.4285714
507	836	8	63.375	104.5
507	836	9	56.33333333	92.88888889
507	836	10	50.7	83.6
507	836	11	46.09090909	76
507	836	12	42.25	69.66666667
507	836	13	39	64.30769231
507	836	14	36.21428571	59.71428571
507	836	15	33.8	55.73333333
507	836	16	31.6875	52.25
507	836	17	29.82352941	49.17647059
507	836	18	28.16666667	46.44444444
507	836	19	26.68421053	44
507	836	20	25.35	41.8
507	836	21	24.14285714	39.80952381
507	836	22	23.04545455	38
507	836	23	22.04347826	36.34782609
507	836	24	21.125	34.83333333
507	836	25	20.28	33.44
507	836	26	19.5	32.15384615
507	836	27	18.77777778	30.96296296
507	836	28	18.10714286	29.85714286
507	836	29	17.48275862	28.82758621
507	836	30	16.9	27.86666667

 

[carsly]

Nice detective work. So averaging ~30 trucks per day or 900 per month? That seems pretty close to a nice round production goal of 1000 per month.

That's not how production ramps work.

Try fitting to an S curve.

Though reality isn't quite that clean either at this early stage. Production increases are not necessarily a continuous function. More like step changes as they figure out the rate-limiting steps, perhaps take the line down to improve them, and restart. Then you find a new rate-limiting step - rinse and repeat.

While we could say a recent average of ~40/day would equate to 1,200/mo and then <15,000 in 2024 we are guaranteed to be wrong. Because next week could average 50/day and then the week after 60/day then maybe 30/day as they shut down the line for a day or two to rejigger things and then 90/day the week or two after that. We just don't know what's happening inside the factory.

BTW, this data and analysis is quite insightful. Thanks to the OP for doing the heavy lifting and sharing with all of us!

 

[Gigahorse]

Just in case anyone is still tuning in, 174 trucks outside of giga texas yesterday (normal for a production day). 32 in outbound. Nothing to directly suggest that production has increased yet, but it does seem like things are rolling through outbound differently than they were.

We peaked on 3/5 at 59 in outbound, and then it's been going down from there. But I believe the output has been right around the magic number of 57 trucks shipped per day, so things are more dynamic than they were.

I'll keep the spreadsheet updated on my end but I'm probably not going to be updating it in the first post until we get drone videos back at 6 days per week. It just won't be meaningful information with less outbound numbers.

That said, we're seeing 5 vins assigned for 3/11 and 3/12 already, normally a few more get added over the course of a week. We might end up seeing 7 or 8 vins assigned for those 2 days by the time the numbers have settled. Time will tell.

It occurs to me that people may not like my assumptions (duh, it's the internet), but I can still provide useful information to those people. You pick how many vins you think will be assigned on average per day, only of the registered orders on the forums. This will tell you how long it will take, based on that average, to fill the orders quoted for march delivery.

Per cybertruck.vin, the average vins per day (on the forum) are at 3.6 starting from jan 1. Counting from feb 1, vins per day is 4.4. Counting from Feb 26, vins per day is 5.4.

I'm including beasts because they are being shipped with AWD. The lead time was longer (early 24 ends April 30th), and moved quickly. But we can't assume that vins being assigned are AWD vins based on the last few days.

Spreadsheet assumes vins stop going out of order as well, which we know won't happen.

March delivery orders remaining (1/17 cutoff, AWD)	All orders including beast, 1/17 cutoff	Known vins assigned per day (avg)	Days to last march AWD vin assignment	Days including beast
507	836	1	507	836
507	836	2	253.5	418
507	836	3	169	278.6666667
507	836	4	126.75	209
507	836	5	101.4	167.2
507	836	6	84.5	139.3333333
507	836	7	72.42857143	119.4285714
507	836	8	63.375	104.5
507	836	9	56.33333333	92.88888889
507	836	10	50.7	83.6
507	836	11	46.09090909	76
507	836	12	42.25	69.66666667
507	836	13	39	64.30769231
507	836	14	36.21428571	59.71428571
507	836	15	33.8	55.73333333

5.4 vins per day would fit in pretty well with the actual trucks being delivered and shipped out.

 

[agordon117]

That's not how production ramps work.

Try fitting to an S curve.

Though reality isn't quite that clean either at this early stage. Production increases are not necessarily a continuous function. More like step changes as they figure out the rate-limiting steps, perhaps take the line down to improve them, and restart. Then you find a new rate-limiting step - rinse and repeat.

While we could say a recent average of ~40/day would equate to 1,200/mo and then <15,000 in 2024 we are guaranteed to be wrong. Because next week could average 50/day and then the week after 60/day then maybe 30/day as they shut down the line for a day or two to rejigger things and then 90/day the week or two after that. We just don't know what's happening inside the factory.

BTW, this data and analysis is quite insightful. Thanks to the OP for doing the heavy lifting and sharing with all of us!

And for sure, there will be some kind of curve, while my data is all linear. But I will adjust as it goes and the picture becomes more clear.

 

[agordon117]

5.4 vins per day would fit in pretty well with the actual trucks being delivered and shipped out.

Vins and deliveries that we know about here, yeah. It brings the assumption closer to 1:10, people registering on the forum vs all cybertruck owners/order holders. Because the rate of 57 trucks shipped per day seems to be pretty close to correct.

The good news is, vins assigned here per day does seem to be increasing. Hopefully the trend continues.

 

[SpykeDaddy]

Thanks for doing this analysis. I love it. So interesting and you have saved a lot of us from doing that tedious sleuthing to know what's happening in the outbound parking lot. Really appreciate this!

I have worked in manufacturing for 30 years and have been involved in new product launches (not cars, tho!) and it is unavoidable to hit a few things: 1) supplier issues (delivery on time, quality) 2) production issues (labor, process, waiting for new equipment) and 3) design issues (need to redesign a supplied part, production step or replace equipment)

All of those things can set back production numbers inside of a single day. It's a horrific process and, as a leader, so frustrating and exhilarating at the same time. Some days I go home wondering if we'll ever make a quality unit and others I think, we're going to beat our ramp numbers. Literally changes daily.

I'm only sharing as things are going to be unpredictable for a long time!

Thanks again for collecting some great info.

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