TSLA vs Cybertruck expectations

[SpaceYooper]

I have no intention of selling any stock in the next 20 yrs.

Even before the Q3 earning call TSLA stock was down almost 17+% off it's previous high and since Elon's, "we dug our own grave" comments the stock is down another 19%.
Jul 18 - $293
Oct 18 (Q3 Earning report) - $242
Today (as of this post) - $196

Does anyone else think this has to do with range and price expectations for the CT launch the end of next month? Meaning they will debut something that has the range and pricing that looks a lot like what is already available, and that is not what the retail and even corporate investing wants to see to support the previous TSLA price.

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[Diehard]

CT being the cause of Tesla’s death does not mean it will be a bad truck, it just means at least initially it won’t be profitable. In fact, you could even take it as it will be so good AND so affordable, it will be hard to make profit out of it. If that is the case, since you are not worried about the stock price, you should be fine.

 

[Mini2nut]

I will be curious to see the stock price after the November 30th event. It will be interesting to see how Wall Street and the experts react to the Cybertruck.

 

[scottf200]

I will be curious to see the stock price after the November 30th event. It will be interesting to see how Wall Street and the experts react to the Cybertruck.

It doesn't seem like any Tesla events change the stock much IIRC.
I recall watching the impressive last investor day and there was hardly any change.

 

[jerhenderson]

I have no intention of selling any stock in the next 20 yrs.

Even before the Q3 earning call TSLA stock was down almost 17+% off it's previous high and since Elon's, "we dug our own grave" comments the stock is down another 19%.
Jul 18 - $293
Oct 18 (Q3 Earning report) - $242
Today (as of this post) - $196

Does anyone else think this has to do with range and price expectations for the CT launch the end of next month? Meaning they will debut something that has the range and pricing that looks a lot like what is already available, and that is not what the retail and even corporate investing wants to see to support the previous TSLA price.

the change will come when the so- called experts see the profits generated by Tesla energy and finally understand Tesla isn't a car company.

 

[charliemagpie]

If the balance sheet changes, the share price will reflect.

What happens in between is fickle and each to their own.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

If the balance sheet changes, the share price will reflect.

What happens in between is fickle and each to their own.

All we need for Christmas is a 'Jar Of Fickle' [JOF]
We can spread some 'Tesla Joy' about.......Lord knows we can do with some!

Edit: Speaking of 'J.O.F'.....I was on telly with Joffa Boy, the Australian comedian in 1972 at GTV9 Studios for Yooralla!

 

[HaulingAss]

the change will come when the so- called experts see the profits generated by Tesla energy and finally understand Tesla isn't a car company.

That's probably likely. I think with news that there is a li-ion battery surplus in the markets, and with Tesla's recent ramping of automated Megapack mass production seeming like it's going well, and with energy markets being less sensitive to economic conditions than new car buyers, I think the release of Q4 results might be the beginning of a new TSLA bull market (even if the results from the automotive side of the business are still depressed). We won't know for sure exactly when it will happen, but energy storage is ripe for rapid growth. The growth in Q3 was impressive and we know the revenues are delayed from actual sales, so I'm guessing Q4 will probably see further growth (and it just might be earth-shaking).

The real wildcard is FSD development. I think there is a sense that things are getting close so, depending upon the capabilities of FSD Ver. 12, and when it goes into wide release, that's another prime opportunity for a breakout in TSLA.

I don't see TSLA languishing for an extended period (meaning past mid-2024), so the best strategy for potential investors is to accumulate as much as desired when the price is depressed. Stocks of good companies that have experienced big declines have a way of breaking out rather suddenly and without prior warning. Getting in before the breakout can really multiply your returns.

 

[Sirfun]

CT being the cause of Tesla’s death does not mean it will be a bad truck, it just means at least initially it won’t be profitable. In fact, you could even take it as it will be so good AND so affordable, it will be hard to make profit out of it. If that is the case, since you are not worried about the stock price, you should be fine.

A lot of people came away thinking and saying that the Cybertruck will not be producing a profit for 18 months or so.

This is the quote from Elon: "I just want to temper expectations for Cybertruck. It's a great product, but financially it will take – I don't know – a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive cash flow contributor,"

Look at those words. Significant positive cash flow contributor. He's not saying there won't be ANY profit. It could be profitable. Just not what Elon considers significant. So don't go blowing up the value of Tesla stock because the Cybertruck is finally being produced and sold to limited customers.

He's talking to shareholders to temper their expectations. Because, he knows they'll be unhappy when the production of the small numbers of Cybertrucks they're going to start out with, doesn't even move the needle for Tesla profits for at least a few quarters, or up to 18 months.

Personally I was very dissatisfied with Elon's comments during the earnings call. Sure, it makes sense to say THAT about expectations on the Cybertruck, but he was all full of gloom and doom. And he could have done a much better job of expressing the positives. And he should have been better prepared for the questions that they knew days in advance were going to be asked.

 

[firsttruck]

.....

This is the quote from Elon: "I just want to temper expectations for Cybertruck. It's a great product, but financially it will take – I don't know – a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive cash flow contributor,"

Look at those words. Significant positive cash flow contributor. He's not saying there won't be ANY profit. It could be profitable. Just not what Elon considers significant. So don't go blowing up the value of Tesla stock because the Cybertruck is finally being produced and sold to limited customers.
.....

I agree with you 1,000%

Elon did not say Cybertruck would add NO profit or result in NO increase to positive cash flow .

Elon did not say the price of the Cybertruck was going to be sky-high ( like dual motor at price over $65K ).

The use of "significant" in the phrase "significant positive cash flow contributor" is significant.

A billion is 1,000 more than a million.

Recent approximate annual net profit for Tesla was $12-$13 billion.

Yes, when a company makes $12-13 billions net profit each year an additional profit of a few millions for 12 months looks small and "INsignificant" (NOT significant).

In 2025-2026 when Tesla has ramped the Cybertruck to 125K-200K per year then it will add significantly to net profit and be "significant positive cash flow contributor" .

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The Top 12 Automaker Rankings
In this video, I react to the "report card" released by John McElroy at Autoline showing the Top 12 automakers ranked 8 different ways.
Apr 9, 2023
James Stephenson

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[CYBR117]

the change will come when the so- called experts see the profits generated by Tesla energy and finally understand Tesla isn't a car company.

After the whole MegaPack, Open SuperChargers and a host of other innovations coming out of Tesla. I was planning on buying not selling. Now I just want to buy even more with the lower price. You’re absolutely correct in saying Tesla isn’t an automotive company.

 

[ED_SFO]

From watching the stock for years. The stock reflects more of how the social storyline is vs actual numbers. If the stock was just based strictly on numbers then not sure why the stock tanks at all, because the numbers are amazing. But if Elon farts then the stock takes a nose dive. If he's caught drinking regular coca-cola vs diet, the stock tanks. Unless your a very early investor, I wouldn't touch Tesla stock because of the volatility based on the random ass shit Elon does.

 

[charliemagpie]

I read 'significant', as being profitable but not enough to please those who chase quarterly results.

Conversely, I take it, he is saying it will be significant profit growth for Tesla in 12-18 months.

The CT is scaling to significant company profitability. In a normal world, IMO, that in itself should be a catalyst to raise the PE right now.

 

[AZCYBER]

I will be curious to see the stock price after the November 30th event. It will be interesting to see how Wall Street and the experts react to the Cybertruck.

I don't give a crap about the traders on Wall Street. The CT will be a great all purpose vehicle.

 

[davelloydbrown]

The only reason that I will be selling some of my tesla stock (1/4 at most) would be to buy the CT so hopefully there will be some recovery in the next year.

With all the doom and gloom around tesla stock, this is a good buying opportunity. We have been through this before in late 2022 and early 2023. I have been a tesla stock holder since 2015, and the troubles that the stock and company are having now are nothing compared to what it was going through pre 2020, with the model 3 launch and the short sellers.

Unlike then, Elon learned his lesson and tesla has almost no debt, and a company without debt will not go bankrupt. The problem with the stock now is its valuation (PE) and whether it is a car company or tech company. If it is just a car company, which it is acting like now when lowering it prices, it is greatly over valued.

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