How many CT3 reservation holders would change to a CT2 if only CT2 were produced for the first 18 months.

Would you change your reservation to the CT2 ($59,900, 320 miles, 4ws) if the CT3 wait time +18 mo.


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Tinker71

Tinker71

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Tinker, people who pre-ordered don't care about any of those reasons you listed. They pre-ordered at a certain price, they expect delivery at that certain price. Tesla has the rest of the Cybertruck production run to raise prices, but they need to honor their pricing on existing pre-orders.
Tesla is not going to build the exact truck specifications from reveal just to satisfy reservation holders only to redesign everything based on 4 years of learning and improvements after reservation holders are satisfied.

It will be a little give and take. My bet is most people will accept some give and take. Some will walk away for various reasons.

I trust Elon. He wants to to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. He won't do that by building things that most people cannot afford. He wants the CT in the hands of the masses. The profitability of Tesla all get's reinvested in this vision until dividends are issued that is.

The how much and when is just conjecture sometimes supported by evidence. Only Tesla will make the final call. Why bother getting excited?

 

Jhodgesatmb

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Commuting, I drive 70 miles daily. Ideally, I want a full tank/charge to last a week excluding running errands and weekends.

Since I charge at home, 300 pack give me three days travel before lugging in when taking into account not charging full and never going below 10% before plugging in.

Why 300 and not 500? Most of the truck’s features are wasted on me, I will not be towing, will not be glamping, farthest travel is driving to Vegas. 500 range would be nice for that but, the last time I drove was 7 years ago.

Since I am a Home Depot runner, may move a fridge or two in the future and mainly move dive equipment on weekends, moving a larger battery goes to waste for me.

However, I would still upgrade to a larger battery if the price point made sense. Between 50k and 70k does not make sense for me and me alone.
We are in the same boat, so to speak. My Model Y supposedly gets 320 miles on a full charge, but during the week I am expected to use between 20% and 80% (to maximize battery life) and that 60% is less than 200 miles. I 'can' get 3 days on that but if I detour at all I am getting very close to the 20% limit. If the 4680 cells will let us go from 10% to 90% around town w/o hurting the battery (wish/guess) I still wouldn't get 4 days. People might say, "so plug in every 2 days" and, in fact, that is what I do now. It is just a preference to not have to plug in for 4 or 5 days. At 80% battery usage and a 500 mile range I could charge up almost every 5 days and that would be ok.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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No, I hold TSLA stock and I would personally love a CT3 with 4WS for $69,900. Currently my reservation is for the CT2 but it they could hold pricing I would probably upgrade when my turn comes up.

The CT3 will take nearly 3x the batteries of a standard range Y, which are selling like hot cakes for over $60k. Why in the heck would Tesla sell one CT3 with 10% margin over 3 model Y at 30% margin.

Why would Tesla sell a 500 mile range vehicle for nearly 40% less than their highest range flagship model S?

Why the hate bro? I am simply stating my opinion of logical thought process for Tesla. Managerial Accounting 202.
Now I see the problem: Managerial Accounting 202. You are missing the whole "Elon vs Wall Street" thing. His 'stated' motivation is to speed to world's transition to sustainable energy. Not profit. He has openly stated that the CT will not be produced until they can produce it affordably. You will never hear that from Ford, GM, Stellantis, VW, Toyota, etc. It isn't fair to compare a Model Y and a CT any more than it is to compare a Model Y and a Model S. You can compare a CT with an ICE Ford F150 (and Elon has made a point of that). He wants ICE F150 owners to look at the Cybertruck, so the Cybertruck has to be cost competitive with the ICE F150, not the Lightning, eSilverado, eHummer, Rivian, etc., and for that he will have to have functionality galore and keep his prices as low as possible, and to make back the difference with improvements in manufacturing cost and reduced warranty repairs.

And it isn't hate at all. I want a poll that gives a proper range of options. If the polls offer an option that says something like "none of the above" or "I don't think this will ever happen" then I will vote and not offer any criticism (well, I hope not).
 
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Tinker71

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Now I see the problem: Managerial Accounting 202. You are missing the whole "Elon vs Wall Street" thing. His 'stated' motivation is to speed to world's transition to sustainable energy. Not profit. He has openly stated that the CT will not be produced until they can produce it affordably. You will never hear that from Ford, GM, Stellantis, VW, Toyota, etc. It isn't fair to compare a Model Y and a CT any more than it is to compare a Model Y and a Model S. You can compare a CT with an ICE Ford F150 (and Elon has made a point of that). He wants ICE F150 owners to look at the Cybertruck, so the Cybertruck has to be cost competitive with the ICE F150, not the Lightning, eSilverado, eHummer, Rivian, etc., and for that he will have to have functionality galore and keep his prices as low as possible, and to make back the difference with improvements in manufacturing cost and reduced warranty repairs.

And it isn't hate at all. I want a poll that gives a proper range of options. If the polls offer an option that says something like "none of the above" or "I don't think this will ever happen" then I will vote and not offer any criticism (well, I hope not).
If range was your most important criteria for selecting a vehicle you would buy the ct3 over a high end model S for a lot less money. Can you agree on that? I will acknowledge not everyone wants a truck.
 

Ogre

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If this hypothetical change were made and this hypothetical situation happened, would you pick this other hypothetical model?

I have 2 reservations. I’m going to buy whatever I can afford when my first number gets called. If I’m not happy with it, then 2 years later when my next number gets pulled, I’ll buy the exact one I want and sell the first.

I didn’t see that option on your poll.
 


Luke42

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Your ICE will eventually die or become too expensive to operate. Good luck.

For people that REALLY need to tow, I hope there is a good Plug in Hybrid in the near future. 200 plus Kwhr battery packs don't make much sense at current energy density/cost levels.

Most F150 users only tow over 100 miles on the week end.
The only plugin hybrid pickup truck that I know of that has actually been announced it the Jeep Gladiator 4xe. If the CT can't cover the 200-miles-with-my-travel-trailer towing range for me, the Jeep Gladiator 4xe is the next-best option that has been publicly announced.

I can't imagine that Ford , GM, and Stellantis don't each have a plugin hybrid pickup truck under wraps, but I haven't seen the announcement. And, honestly, I work in product-development for an industry with much less -- and we aren't announcing products because the electronics shortage is making it hard to predict new product introduction schedules. An F-150 Plugin Hybrid with a 40-mile unladen electric range would be hard to resist.

I also imagine that Rivian is working on an even-longer range R1T.

But the 500-mile CT and the Jeep Gladiator 4xe are the best choices which have been publicly mentioned so far.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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If range was your most important criteria for selecting a vehicle you would buy the ct3 over a high end model S for a lot less money. Can you agree on that? I will acknowledge not everyone wants a truck.
I would never be in a position to choose between a Cybertruck and a Model S because I want a truck. I 'have' considered a Model X but it had features (falcon wing doors) I do not need and it cost twice as much as I am willing to pay. But its range is too low (as you noted) and it is too dainty for me; I need a vehicle that can take abuse. But the Model XS is a better comparison. That said, everything else below still applies.

I cannot imagine many people that would want a Cybertruck as a pickup truck being interested in a Model S and I cannot imagine many people that would be interested in a Model S as a luxury car being interested in a Cybertruck. So it is apples and oranges to me. The reason I put Model Y to Model S comparison in there is that at least the Model Y is a passenger vehicle, but I do not see the lower-priced Model Y stealing orders from the Model S because the Model S is still a luxury vehicle and hence has a different demographic. Anyway, the number of Model Ss (or Xs) that are produced and sold in a year will never compete with a mass-produced vehicle like a Model Y or Cybertruck. Moreover, if you watch the teardowns of the Model S then you know that it is not made in an efficient way, whereas the Cybertruck will be as efficient as Tesla can possibly make them. The cost of producing the vehicle is the lion's share of its cost. So I am sorry to say that we cannot agree on that.
 

AndrewB

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I will be towing a lot, so I will get the longest range option. If I can get the same extended range with 2 motors as 3 or 4 then I'll get the cheaper 2 motor with bigger battery. If I have to spring $120k and wait an extra year to get 650 miles of range, then I'll do that.
I don't mind the wait or the cost to get exactly what I want.
 

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I prefer the 4 motor (not offered at reservation time) based on what I think is greater simplicity and durability and better wheel control, provided it loses little or no range compared to the tri-motor. Cost...is not ignored, but either I can afford it or I can't.
 


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One other thought on this.

After 18 months of production, it’s likely all lines will be running and they will be producing all of the various trims. Orders over 200k or so are likely to have lots of choice. Likely the only ones faced with limited trims are folks who have spots in the queue under 50k or so.
 

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As Ive read on somewhere here today, I think it makes total sense to make the highest price point first.

It will be ramping from hundreds per week to a thousand before we see exponential growth, so why not start with the lower volume more expensive truck, whose orders will likely match the ramp speed.

Nothing is really lost, maybe there's 30,000 orders for a $100,000 truck ? Which can be easily fulfilled without straining the waiting time.
(unless you are earliest in line, in which case stiff ! )lol
 

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As Ive read on somewhere here today, I think it makes total sense to make the highest price point first.

It will be ramping from hundreds per week to a thousand before we see exponential growth, so why not start with the lower volume more expensive truck, whose orders will likely match the ramp speed.

Nothing is really lost, maybe there's 30,000 orders for a $100,000 truck ? Which can be easily fulfilled without straining the waiting time.
(unless you are earliest in line, in which case stiff ! )lol
Look at the Model Y in Austin. They started the Model Y AWD ~3 months ago. They are spinning up the Model Y LR right now. In another 3 months they will likely be spinning up the Model Y Performance.

They don’t produce 30,000 of one trim, then 30,000 of the next trim, then 60,000 of the next.

They will produce one trim until they iron out the bugs in the line, then they will fire up the next line and it will likely be another trim. I’m sure they would sell a significant number of Plaid trucks, but in a year or 2 years, they will be selling far more trucks in the $50k - $70k price range. They need to start that ramp up as soon as possible because that’s where the volume is going to be in the long term.

If they have 3 lines cranking out 10,000 Plaid trucks a month, how long before they run out of people willing to drop six figures on a truck? At that point they have to shut down a line and convert it. That doesn’t make a ton of sense. Built one line with Plaid then start up Dual Motor a few months later—which will likely be the lions share of trucks they sell—then maybe tri motor.

It won’t be 18 months before we see the second and third trims. Look at Tesla’s prior launches, that’s not how it goes.
 

Bill906

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After 18 months of production, it’s likely all lines will be running and they will be producing all of the various trims.
Do you think they’ll have separate lines for each trim? I was assuming one line and they’d make them in batches. Once they got their groove going it’d be like Monday is quad day, Tuesday and Wednesday they make the Tri, Thursday and Friday is dual motor day, Saturday is single motor, and Sunday is wildcard. As far as we know, there‘s only going to be one gigapress for the CT, right?
 

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Do you think they’ll have separate lines for each trim? I was assuming one line and they’d make them in batches. Once they got their groove going it’d be like Monday is quad day, Tuesday and Wednesday they make the Tri, Thursday and Friday is dual motor day, Saturday is single motor, and Sunday is wildcard. As far as we know, there‘s only going to be one gigapress for the CT, right?
I’m making an assumption here. Transitioning from one trim to the next takes time and introduces a window to fuck things up. That’s when car companies start putting red doors on blue cars.

Maybe you are right. I wonder how they do it with the performance and LR currently.

Even if they could do it as you describe, are they making 30,000 Plaid drive units then switching to 100k Dual Motor drive units? Seems like this all makes things more complex not less.

 

 
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