How many CT3 reservation holders would change to a CT2 if only CT2 were produced for the first 18 months.

Would you change your reservation to the CT2 ($59,900, 320 miles, 4ws) if the CT3 wait time +18 mo.


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charliemagpie

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I was thinking they start with one line, building one type. Then over the first few months expand the shifts and into weekends. Then start a second line etc

There are pro's and cons.

I'm not sure which way to go. Data is needed.

Is it better to begin making lower volume high-priced product first, only to see it ramp down?, or is it better to start with the high volume $70,000 version and gear it up unimpeded.

 

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So if they canceled the CT altogether would. TESLA be obligated to perform?

Could some group bring a case? Would they have some valid points. Yes. Would they win. No. 100% certain.
They'd take a huge reputation hit and no, but they might be party to 'lost chances' lawsuits from buyers and competitors. By offering the reservations, they sucked up the available oxygen (buyers) that prevented the competition from breathing (getting sales).

-Crissa
 

Crissa

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We are in the same boat, so to speak. My Model Y supposedly gets 320 miles on a full charge, but during the week I am expected to use between 20% and 80% (to maximize battery life) and that 60% is less than 200 miles. I 'can' get 3 days on that but if I detour at all I am getting very close to the 20% limit. If the 4680 cells will let us go from 10% to 90% around town w/o hurting the battery (wish/guess) I still wouldn't get 4 days. People might say, "so plug in every 2 days" and, in fact, that is what I do now. It is just a preference to not have to plug in for 4 or 5 days. At 80% battery usage and a 500 mile range I could charge up almost every 5 days and that would be ok.
It's not going to change the sweet-spot percentage. That's chemistry, not electronic.

-Crissa
 
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Tinker71

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I would never be in a position to choose between a Cybertruck and a Model S because I want a truck. I 'have' considered a Model X but it had features (falcon wing doors) I do not need and it cost twice as much as I am willing to pay. But its range is too low (as you noted) and it is too dainty for me; I need a vehicle that can take abuse. But the Model XS is a better comparison. That said, everything else below still applies.

I cannot imagine many people that would want a Cybertruck as a pickup truck being interested in a Model S and I cannot imagine many people that would be interested in a Model S as a luxury car being interested in a Cybertruck. So it is apples and oranges to me. The reason I put Model Y to Model S comparison in there is that at least the Model Y is a passenger vehicle, but I do not see the lower-priced Model Y stealing orders from the Model S because the Model S is still a luxury vehicle and hence has a different demographic. Anyway, the number of Model Ss (or Xs) that are produced and sold in a year will never compete with a mass-produced vehicle like a Model Y or Cybertruck. Moreover, if you watch the teardowns of the Model S then you know that it is not made in an efficient way, whereas the Cybertruck will be as efficient as Tesla can possibly make them. The cost of producing the vehicle is the lion's share of its cost. So I am sorry to say that we cannot agree on that.
You avoided the question but I agree with you for the most part.

The ct3 will be able to do everything better than the model S less road handling and maybe fit in a smaller space. Unless you really want a sedan you should choose the CT3.
Look at the Model Y in Austin. They started the Model Y AWD ~3 months ago. They are spinning up the Model Y LR right now. In another 3 months they will likely be spinning up the Model Y Performance.

They don’t produce 30,000 of one trim, then 30,000 of the next trim, then 60,000 of the next.

They will produce one trim until they iron out the bugs in the line, then they will fire up the next line and it will likely be another trim. I’m sure they would sell a significant number of Plaid trucks, but in a year or 2 years, they will be selling far more trucks in the $50k - $70k price range. They need to start that ramp up as soon as possible because that’s where the volume is going to be in the long term.

If they have 3 lines cranking out 10,000 Plaid trucks a month, how long before they run out of people willing to drop six figures on a truck? At that point they have to shut down a line and convert it. That doesn’t make a ton of sense. Built one line with Plaid then start up Dual Motor a few months later—which will likely be the lions share of trucks they sell—then maybe tri motor.

It won’t be 18 months before we see the second and third trims. Look at Tesla’s prior launches, that’s not how it goes.
The Y has 2 very different battery packs and assembly strategies. That is why there are 2 lines. The CT might just have 1. No color options, maybe no seat options. They could run batches of xx,xxx SNs and only change over every 3-5 weeks during a major PM. That is why I was thinking batches.
 


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I’m making an assumption here. Transitioning from one trim to the next takes time and introduces a window to fuck things up. That’s when car companies start putting red doors on blue cars.

Maybe you are right. I wonder how they do it with the performance and LR currently.

Even if they could do it as you describe, are they making 30,000 Plaid drive units then switching to 100k Dual Motor drive units? Seems like this all makes things more complex not less.
I was also assuming and have no problem admitting the assumption may be wrong. Now that I think about it, there's actually some evidence the suggests my assumption is wrong.
  • Switching trims on a single line invites quality issues. (as you said)
  • The fact that this is a "giga" factory suggests they have the room for multiple lines
  • It sounds like Tesla wants to have a very high production rate. I'm guessing one line isn't enough to produce what they want.
  • If they only have one line, and it goes down ALL trims will be delayed.
 

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I"m really REALLY certain the sun will come up tomorrow. But I am not 100% certain.
I'm willing to plant my flag on the idea of the sun rising tomorrow 100%, because no one will be around to gloat if I am wrong
 

CyberGus

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Is it really that challenging to switch up the manufacturing lines? Options are:

1. HV pack size (3 sizes?)
2. Rear drivetrain (2 variants: single or dual motor)
3. Front drivetrain (2 variants: single or dual motor)

Everything else should be the same. And there's no painting to do!

Some have suggested that 4WS would be an option, but it's cheaper to manufacture when included on all vehicles. For lower trims, they could include the hardware but make it a software-activated purchase.
 

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The Y has 2 very different battery packs and assembly strategies. That is why there are 2 lines. The CT might just have 1. No color options, maybe no seat options. They could run batches of xx,xxx SNs and only change over every 3-5 weeks during a major PM. That is why I was thinking batches.
CT has potentially 3 different battery packs and 4 different drive unit configurations. It’s more likely for the first couple years it’ll be 2 and 2. There are no color options or seat options, but the stuff that matters changes a lot.



The bigger point is: Look back at the way they’ve done other products. They’ve never run a single SKU for 18 months. They always launch with a single SKU, then add another a few months down the road. Usually they are producing all of the SKUs within a year.
 


Bill906

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I'm willing to plant my flag on the idea of the sun rising tomorrow 100%, because no one will be around to gloat if I am wrong
I take it you're in the "no" group for the question, If a tree falls in the woods and nobody is around to hear it, does it make a sound?
 
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Tinker71

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Is it really that challenging to switch up the manufacturing lines? Options are:

1. HV pack size (3 sizes?)
2. Rear drivetrain (2 variants: single or dual motor)
3. Front drivetrain (2 variants: single or dual motor)

Everything else should be the same. And there's no painting to do!

Some have suggested that 4WS would be an option, but it's cheaper to manufacture when included on all vehicles. For lower trims, they could include the hardware but make it a software-activated purchase.
I hate the software activated hardware BS. If you are carrying around the mass for hardware and paying to move that hardware via energy it should work. Pure software subscriptions I am OK with. Battery limits are a little different but not much. In the days were you could buy a software limited 60kWhr model with a 85kWhr pack you at least had the benefit of operating in the sweet range for extended battery life.

If you get in an accident and it messes up the wheel alignment in the rear you would probably need to fix the hardware that is not active. It is also a waste on world resources. That is messed up.

Let's not encourage Tesla to do this.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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I hate the software activated hardware BS. If you are carrying around the mass for hardware and paying to move that hardware via energy it should work. Pure software subscriptions I am OK with. Battery limits are a little different but not much. In the days were you could buy a software limited 60kWhr model with a 85kWhr pack you at least had the benefit of operating in the sweet range for extended battery life.

If you get in an accident and it messes up the wheel alignment in the rear you would probably need to fix the hardware that is not active. It is also a waste on world resources. That is messed up.

Let's not encourage Tesla to do this.
It may be BS to you but it may be more efficient for the manufacturer and thus less expensive oversll. I do not claim to know but we do know that Tesla has done this kind of thing in the past.
 
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Tinker71

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CT has potentially 3 different battery packs and 4 different drive unit configurations. It’s more likely for the first couple years it’ll be 2 and 2. There are no color options or seat options, but the stuff that matters changes a lot.



The bigger point is: Look back at the way they’ve done other products. They’ve never run a single SKU for 18 months. They always launch with a single SKU, then add another a few months down the road. Usually they are producing all of the SKUs within a year.
As you said the CT will have combinations of 3 main parts. I don't thing swapping parts necessitates a new line. The principle is the same. Bolt a front, middle and rear together. Are the battery interfaces all the same? Could you bolt a CT1 front end without a motor to a 500 mile battery pack etc. That is the question of the hour. Will there be a double stack battery and a single or is everything based on the double stack with voids?


I didn't advocate for an 18 month batch of a single product. Runs of batches of 5000 minimum should be pretty manageable. Changing the seat fabric would not necessarily be grounds for a new batch in itself as it does not change the process.

The 18 months was for CT2 production and Plaid production only. The only reason to do that would be to maximize volume and profit during the period when batteries are severely constrained.

I know batteries are not supposed to be the governing constraint until 2024 but building CT3 first would pull that forward and eat up the stock pile quicker.
 

Crissa

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You avoided the question but I agree with you for the most part.

The ct3 will be able to do everything better than the model S less road handling and maybe fit in a smaller space. Unless you really want a sedan you should choose the CT3.
The Model S will recharge faster and discharge less fast. It will take a bit for those 4680s to catch up to a mature battery with a tweaked chemistry and experienced charge curves.

-Crissa

 

 
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