How many CT3 reservation holders would change to a CT2 if only CT2 were produced for the first 18 months.

[Tinker71]

The Model S will recharge faster and discharge less fast. It will take a bit for those 4680s to catch up to a mature battery with a tweaked chemistry and experienced charge curves.

-Crissa

I think most of us are assuming the next generation 4680 with dry electrode technology on the anode will go into the CT. These will have characteristics similar or better to existing 2170/1865 of today if not better.

I keep crossing my fingers that Tesla will release more capacity on the existing 4680 model Y, otherwise the pack density/negative mass? of the structural packs is disappointing.

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[Ogre]

I think most of us are assuming the next generation 4680 with dry electrode technology on the anode will go into the CT. These will have characteristics similar or better to existing 2170/1865 of today if not better.

I keep crossing my fingers that Tesla will release more capacity on the existing 4680 model Y, otherwise the pack density/negative mass? of the structural packs is disappointing.

Lots of the stuff from Battery Day is not present. We’re still not on a fully dry battery process.

Remains to be seen if we get all the goodies at launch or later on.

 

[Tinker71]

If I can summarize and conclude on the high power, statistically significant poll (57 entries) and other conservative well accepted knowledge.

1.) More people were going to order the CT2 anyway.
2.) The CT2 will require ~40% less batteries per unit than the CT3.
3.) At latest advertised prices the CT would be a amazing value compared to the broader EV market.
4.) Of the people who want/can afford the CT3 given the choice to downgrade or wait:
a.) 30% would be resigned to wait if necessary.
b.) 28% would upgrade to the Plaid anyway up to $120K (likely improving their receipt order)
c.) <7% would walk away or seriously look around
d.) 35% would downgrade and pay up to $59,900 for a CT2 considering 20 miles more range, 4ws and 2 years of unexpected inflation) in order to get theirs 18 months plus earlier.
5.) The margin on a model Y is around 25%.
6.) The CT3 will have at least a 180 kWhr pack
7.) The 4680 Y standard range has ~ 60kWhr pack.
8.) Tesla could produce 3 model Y for every 1 CT3 with limited batteries.
9.) Using 25% average margin (CT3 likely lower) $65000x3x.25 = $49k gross profit for selling 3 model Y, $70k x .25 = $17.5 k gross profit for selling one CT3.
10) In a battery constrained 2024. Producing a $70k CT3 is bad business for Tesla.
11.) More units sold = more takers on FSD or EAP = higher profits.
12.) More EV units sold = fewer ICE miles.

Might as well start with the CT2 and Plaid, price all models to beat the competition and make a fair profit to support the broader mission. Thread the needle.

 

[Halemarine]

There's no options for 'that's to rich for my blood' or 'I didn't order a tri motor'?

-Crissa

You're spot on again!

 

[Tinker71]

You're spot on again!

If you really read the entire assumptions CT1 and hard fast CT2 reservation holders were excluded.

 

[cybguy]

Woah, $60k for a two-motor? It was $50k last I checked.

Last I checked the price was gone and it was never guaranteed.

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

No, I hold TSLA stock and I would personally love a CT3 with 4WS for $69,900. Currently my reservation is for the CT2 but it they could hold pricing I would probably upgrade when my turn comes up.

The CT3 will take nearly 3x the batteries of a standard range Y, which are selling like hot cakes for over $60k. Why in the heck would Tesla sell one CT3 with 10% margin over 3 model Y at 30% margin.

Why would Tesla sell a 500 mile range vehicle for nearly 40% less than their highest range flagship model S?

Why the hate bro? I am simply stating my opinion of logical thought process for Tesla. Managerial Accounting 202.

You need to go back and take 303. If Tesla can add $10,000 worth of batteries, $5,000 worth of motors and other parts, and charge $30,000+ extra for each vehicle, they would be stupid not to.

 

[cybguy]

So if they canceled the CT altogether would. TESLA be obligated to perform?

Could some group bring a case? Would they have some valid points. Yes. Would they win. No. 100% certain.

You read and understood the Preorder agreement. Others are just stating what they'd like to happen.
Let's say Tesla sales a million Cybertrucks before the decade ends. For each thousand dollars per Cybertruck selling below what the market will support, Tesla loses a billion dollars. That would likely push off the U.S. division of Tesla from reporting its first annual profit several more years. After 2 decades I think it's time for Tesla to do what it takes to become profitable in its country of origin.
Yes, I'm a shareholder as well.

 

[cybguy]

They'd take a huge reputation hit and no, but they might be party to 'lost chances' lawsuits from buyers and competitors. By offering the reservations, they sucked up the available oxygen (buyers) that prevented the competition from breathing (getting sales).

-Crissa

No one has a reservation for a Cybertruck yet. Preorder terms make it 100% clear no price or production of the Cybertruck is guaranteed. No lawsuit has any chance at all. Please be serious and go reread your preorder agreement before making up nonsense repetitively.

 

[charliemagpie]

One of my first lessons.: It is easy to dial up. Any idiot can do it.

 

[Crissa]

I think most of us are assuming the next generation 4680 with dry electrode technology on the anode will go into the CT. These will have characteristics similar or better to existing 2170/1865 of today if not better.

I keep crossing my fingers that Tesla will release more capacity on the existing 4680 model Y, otherwise the pack density/negative mass? of the structural packs is disappointing.

Dry battery gets us more batteries from a factory, not better batteries, tho.

You said you didn't know why someone would choose a Model S aside from 'sedan'. Well, there's lots of basic, practical from point A to B reasons. Not just zippy fun ones.

Last I checked the price was gone and it was never guaranteed.

Last I checked, people ordering now were somewhere behind five years' worth of production. So their price is unconnected from the launch price.

No one has a reservation for a Cybertruck yet. Preorder terms make it 100% clear...

...That Tesla considers these pre-orders. All pre-orders have the language that they can be canceled at any time.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

You need to go back and take 303. If Tesla can add $10,000 worth of batteries, $5,000 worth of motors and other parts, and charge $30,000+ extra for each vehicle, they would be stupid not to.

So you accept a $30,000 price increase on the CT3? That changes things.
I don't think the price change should or will be that much for the CT3 for many reasons, but you can take the flack from the disappointed CT3 res holders.

The Plaid is more of an ego thing. Rational thought to determine value is less important. Exclusiveness and top tier performance prevails.

 

[NJturtlePower]

Answer this question from the perspective of a CT3 reservation holder or CT2 holder thinking about upgrading to a CT3, knowing the following:

This CT2 has a range of 320 miles and 4ws and the 2023 price listed is $59,900. The future CT3 price is not known yet but it won't be available to START production for 18 months after the CT2 starts.

Tesla will also make a quad motor Plaid during this period with a list price of $120,000 and acceleration of 2.4 and range of 500 miles and some other smaller gimmicks.

All CT3 reservations will be offered the chance to switch and keep their overall place in line.

The CT1 is still planned to be offered but also with undisclosed price and 18 plus months additional wait.

Just wondering where you got all these guesstimate numbers and fictional designations from from? Elon dreams?

CT1/CT2/CT3/Plaid designations aren't a Cybertruck thing?

18-Months this and that says who?

$120k Plaid/Quad Price?

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